Wednesday, March 12, 2014
Feedbacks in risk frameworks
Risk is generally defined as threat times vulnerability, where sometimes vulnerability includes exposure and sensitivity, and some add adaptive capacity inside our outside vulnerability. And, adaptation options attempt to reduce vulnerability - which is more locally focused and short term, while mitigation points at threat, which is more global/regional and longer term. (Ie the Srex diagram). A frequent assumption (need to cite) is that vulnerability and resilience are two sides to the same coin - when you reduce vulnerability, you increase resilience (or vice a versa) but as we discussed before, and as taleb describes, in complex systems that depend on finer scale shocks, you can unintentionally reduce the resilience at a higher scale when you reduce vulnerability. Simply put, by reducing a local community's flood vulnerability you may be decreasing a region's resilience to flooding. This conception implies a feedback between adaptation and mitigation that is critical to consider when dealing with complex emergent patterns - do we need to consider an adaptation options' mitigative power? How does this cost/benefit play into the framework and ultimately the assessment?
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Michal, you've got a lot of ideas mashed up in here (which is the whole goal of this blog, right--to help us get ideas out and then make sense of them).
ReplyDeleteFrom what I read, I see the following topics, all of which I have been thinking about and hence am excited to explore more:
1. The complex cross-scale nature of adaptation/vulnerability/resilience: e.g., decreasing vulnerability at the local level may increase vulnerability at the regional scale; adaptations that are good for one community may be bad for a larger (or smaller) community; etc
2. The need to think about the connectivity between and the distinctions between vulnerability and resilience: Is resilience just the opposite of vulnerability (i.e., vulnerability decrease = resilience increase?) or is it much more complicated than that? I argue the latter. This deserves more explanation. However, contrary to what I think you indicate in your blog (i.e., "you can unintentionally reduce the resilience at a higher scale when you reduce vulnerability"), I don't think resilience only refers to larger scales. I think vulnerability and resilience are at play at all scales, and that they are interconnected but yet not simple opposites of each other. Needs to be explored more.
3. There is also something here about adaptation and mitigation and how these two interrelate in terms of affects on vulnerability and resilience. I'm not entirely sure where you are going with this, but again: something to explore!